Posted on 十一月 19, 2009 | Category: 社会, 网络
译者:Fima 原文见此
“不,漏水可不在议事日程上。”
1985年, Stasser和Titus发表了一项顶级水平的心理学研究。该研究不仅为了解群体如何交流和决策带来了新的启迪,而且令人感到吃惊、困惑和好奇。说也奇怪,一开始,这项研究结果看起来肯定不对,但到后来却似乎明显是正确的,随后,人们的注意力开始转向该怎么应对这类现象。
他们的研究结果相当直截了当,并且与很多决策研究一样,使人类脆弱的自我又一次遭受了打击。他们发现,群体中的成员在做决策的过程中,耗费大部分时间诉说那些所有人都已经知道的事情,却很少提及那些只有他们自己才知道的新信息。结果很明显:糟糕的决定。
Stasser和Titus(1985年)研究的参与者刚好需要做一个相对轻松的决定——谁来担任学生会主席,而后续研究则检验了各种各样的其他情景。实验者要求人们选择一份工作的最佳人选(Wittenbaum, 1998年)、投资的最好形式(Hollingshead, 1996年)以及一宗谋杀案的凶手(Stasser 和 Stewart, 1992年)。
实验结果一再显示,人们很难找出最佳人选、做出最好的投资或者挑出真正的凶手。当要求集体做决定时,人们倾向于重复大家都已经知道的信息,而不是分享那些只有他们本人才知道的关键信息。
解释原因
这些研究结果乍看起来非常违反直觉。人们当然应该非常积极地在讨论中引入新的信息,而不只是重复老一套,不是吗?不管怎样,如果不能共享信息,这个群体就是在自取灭亡。研究结果对这种奇怪的行为提供了三种可信的解释(Wittenbaum等, 2004年):
1. 记忆。共享的信息可能在一开始更容易记住,因此较容易被人提及。而且,如果在某个群体中,知道某一信息的人越多(不管是由于容易记住还是别的什么原因),就越容易让人在讨论中想起这一信息。
2. 预判。在开始群体讨论之前,人们已经不同程度地有了自己的主意。他们产生预判的基础很可能是人人都知道的信息。随后,当群体讨论开始的时候,不管是有意还是无心,人们总是倾向于只提到那些能够支持他们预先判断的信息。想不到啊想不到,大家说的都一样。
3. 焦虑。在会谈之前,人们不确定自己掌握的信息到底有多重要,同时他们也急于得到群体其他成员的肯定。在会谈过程中团队分享的信息通常被认为更加重要,因此被人们反复提到。当人们讨论共有信息而不是独有信息时,他们在别人眼中就更能干(Wittenbaum和Bowman, 2004年)。为保险起见,人们选择反复谈论那些大家都已知道的事情,奇怪的是,别人因此更喜欢他们。
这几点加起来能够初步解释为什么人们很可能无法分享那些他们独有的信息。
训练有素的医生也好不到哪去
不过,对实验结果还有第四种可能的解释。也许实验参与者没有接受过如何分享信息的专门训练。毕竟他们大多是在校大学生——或许那些经验丰富、训练有素的人的表现会好一些?
这正是为什么Larson等(1998年)决定对一群医生进行测试的原因,这些医生接受过如何汇聚不同渠道的信息以便做出诊断的职业训练。实验请到了25名医生参加,他们三人一组,需要为两个虚拟的病例提供诊治方案。首先,每位参加者单独观看了一段录像,录像中的一名病人与其医生(由演员饰演)谈论自己的症状。不过,每位参加者观看的录像和其他人相比都略有不同,因此,有些信息透露给了诊断小组的全部三名成员,而有些信息则只透露给个人。
实验经过精心设计,只有在医生们分享那些仅他们本人才知道的有关病人的信息时,整个小组才有可能做出准确的诊断。然而,实验人员发现,经典的一幕再次上演,参加者们将更多的时间用在讨论那些共有而不是独有的信息上。那些未能汇集每个成员独有信息的群体对病情了解得不够全面,因此他们做出的诊断也不够精确。
考虑到实验的参加者是经过专门训练的决策者,这样的结果尤具戏剧性。
如何鼓励人们分享
很自然地,自从Stasser和Titus(1985年)首次在实验中发现这一现象以来,研究者们一直在寻找如何鼓励人们分享独有信息的办法。有些群体的成员之间确实趋向于分享更多独有的重要信息,这些群体拥有以下特点(引自Wittenbaum等, 2004年):
§ 成员之间存在分歧而且团体迷思(groupthink)现象较少的群体更有可能分享独有信息。
§ 当人们在会谈之前被要求尽力回忆相关信息时,他们更有可能提到那些只有自己才知道的事实。
§ 应使群体成员知道彼此的专长,这样他们大体知道其他人知道些什么。
§ 会谈持续的时间越长,人们越有可能回忆起从前未经分享的信息。(一声叹息……)
§ 在群体中的地位越高的人,就越有可能分享。所以,为鼓励地位较低的成员分享信息,应当特意让群体知晓他们的专长。
下次当你参加决策会议时,试着留意整个群体是否在老生常谈。当会议了无新意时,或许上文提到的一些技巧能够派上用场。
现实如何?
虽然心理学家希望实验场景能反映真实世界的情况,但事实却并非如此。在现实生活中,情况要更加复杂。Wittenbaum等 (2004年) 为我们提供了一个对真实世界中群体决策过程感到悲观的理由,以及两个乐观的理由。
先说坏消息。和实验场景相比,在现实世界中,每个人都有着自己的目标,这些个人目标可能与群体目标相冲突。这可能会直接导致他们不去分享信息,或者导致他们仅以能够推进自身目标的方式来分享信息。这种情况很难遏止。
接下来是好消息。上述大部分研究都假定只有少数人才知道的信息对于决策具有重要意义。在现实世界中并不总是如此。而且,人们可能在群体会议之外直接与其他人分享那些自己不是很有把握的信息。当涉及到的信息比较敏感或其价值不确定时,这种情况更有可能发生。
因此,或许现实中的群体决策所受影响并不像实验证据显示的那么严重。尽管如此,我仍然禁不住想起英国情景喜剧《是,首相》中的一个经典片段,剧中的首相询问他所不知道的外交部机密是什么,他的首席私人秘书伯纳德就此回答道:
“我可以澄清一下您的问题吗?您是在问谁会知道那些我不知道您不知道可外交部知道他们知道的事,他们瞒着您,结果您不知道,可他们的确知道,而我们都知道有的事我们不知道并且想知道。我们不知道是什么事因为我们不知道。对吗?”
嗯,很对。
【校对stony说:“这个译者真靠谱啊!基本没有知识型错误,只在中文行文上做了些许改动。Fima同学也非常认真,为了一段引用的话特意去Youtube听原文的断句,撒花!”——是给5朵小红花吧~】
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十一月 19th, 2009 at 13:49
群体中的成员在做决策的过程中,耗费大部分时间诉说那些所有人都已经知道的事情,却很少提及那些只有他们自己才知道的新信息。结果很明显:糟糕的决定。
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